Match Analysis: Arkansas Razorbacks vs Samford Bulldogs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Bud Walton Arena, Fayetteville, AR
Game Overview
The Arkansas Razorbacks (2-1), ranked #21 nationally, host the Samford Bulldogs (2-1) at the Bud Walton Arena. Arkansas comes off a dominant 37-point home victory and boasts superior offensive and defensive metrics, including 89.3 points per game and strong rim protection. Samford enters on a two-game winning streak, including a narrow overtime victory, but lacks the depth and physicality of Arkansas. The matchup reflects a classic power-conference favorite facing a mid-major team with contrasting styles of play, setting up for a potentially high-scoring but controlled Razorbacks win.
Key Factors to Consider
- Arkansas shows elite offensive efficiency (46.9% FG, 89.3 PPG) and good defensive stability, limiting opponents to around 67 points per game. Samford plays a high-tempo game with decent shooting but struggles defensively, allowing 75.5 PPG. Arkansas grabs more rebounds (42.3 vs. 37 per game) and commits fewer turnovers. Arkansasβ roster depth, shot creation from freshmen, and defensive rebounding stand out.
- No recent direct historical data available. However, Arkansas' dominance as a power-conference team over mid-major opponents is reflected in recent trends and betting lines heavily favoring them.
- No significant injury reports or key player absences reported for either team at this time.
- The game is at Arkansasβ home arena, giving them a strong home-court advantage. Betting trends show Arkansas winning the majority of home nonconference games and covering spreads effectively. Samfordβs perimeter shooting and fast pace increase scoring volatility, potentially pushing the total points higher.
- Arkansas aims to build early-season momentum, asserting dominance at home versus a less heralded opponent. Samford looks to leverage their recent wins and maintain confidence by keeping the game close despite the talent gap.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks: -10000, Samford Bulldogs: 3000 | Arkansas Razorbacks to win | β β β β β 95% |
| Spread | Arkansas Razorbacks: -25.5 -118, Samford Bulldogs: +25.5 -104 | Arkansas Razorbacks to cover -25.5 | β β β β β 88% |
| Over/under | Over 161.5: -106, Under 161.5: -114 | Under 161.5 points | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks -7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 161.5 31% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 161.5 at 31% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 35.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Arkansas Razorbacks are strongly favored to win decisively, leveraging their superior offense, defense, and home advantage. Samfordβs scoring ability may keep them competitive early but Arkansas is expected to control pace and extend the lead.
Predicted Score: Arkansas Razorbacks 92 – Samford Bulldogs 77