Match Analysis: Appalachian St Mountaineers vs Charlotte 49ers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-21
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: George M. Holmes Convocation Center, Boone, NC
Game Overview
The Appalachian State Mountaineers (3-2) host the Charlotte 49ers (2-2) in a closely matched Sun Belt Conference early season contest. Appalachian State comes in with a slight edge on recent form and home advantage, having won 3 of their last 4, including a recent victory over Dartmouth. Charlotte is aiming to snap a two-game losing streak and get their first road win. Both teams have similar offensive outputs around the mid-70s in points per game, with Appalachian State slightly better defensively.
Key Factors to Consider
- Appalachian State averages approximately 74.4 points per game, shooting 44.3% from the field, and allowing around 83.5 points defensively. The Mountaineers have a solid home record (2-0) with 3-1 ATS in last 5 games. Charlotte averages 73.3 points, shooting 43.7% overall and 38.4% from three, allowing around 71.8 points per game. Charlotte is 2-2 in overall and ATS records, but struggling with road wins so far.
- Charlotte leads the recent head-to-head series 7-3 over the last 10 meetings and won the most recent matchup in 2022 by 71-62. Appalachian State has won some recent meetings but Charlotte historically has had an edge.
- No significant injuries reported for starters on either side. Noted minor issues include Elouna Eyenga (wrist) and Vasser (foot) for Appalachian State, though their impact is unclear.
- Appalachian State has struggled in night games recently (5 losses in last 6), but is playing at home. Charlotte has been strong in night games against Sun Belt teams. Both teams play at moderate pace with Charlotte ranking near 347th nationally, which may influence total scoring.
- Appalachian State is motivated by solid recent form and home crowd advantage, looking to continue their 3-1 ATS run. Charlotte aims to halt its two-game losing skid and secure first road win of the season, providing strong motivation.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Appalachian St Mountaineers: -148, Charlotte 49ers: 124 | Appalachian State Mountaineers | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | Appalachian St Mountaineers: -2.5 -110, Charlotte 49ers: +2.5 -110 | Appalachian State to cover -2.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | over: 131.5 -110, under: 131.5 -110 | Over 131.5 points | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Appalachian St Mountaineers 32% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 131.5 15% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Appalachian St Mountaineers at 32% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 25.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Appalachian State is favored to win narrowly at home due to stronger recent form, home advantage, and slightly better execution on offensive efficiency and free throw shooting. The point spread favors Appalachian by -2.5 with confidence, while the total is expected to go over given both teams' offensive outputs.
Predicted Score: Appalachian State Mountaineers 69 – Charlotte 49ers 66