Match Analysis: Air Force Falcons vs SIU-Edwardsville Cougars – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-21
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Clune Arena, USAFA, Colorado Springs, CO
Game Overview
The Air Force Falcons (1-4) host the SIU-Edwardsville Cougars (3-2) in a NCAA Men’s basketball matchup. The Falcons come off a close 66-64 win over Alabama State with key contributions from Caleb Walker and Lucas Hobin, while the Cougars are solid defensively, leading the Ohio Valley Conference in points allowed (65.4) and opponent shooting percentage (36.7%). This game is part of the Air Force Classic, with SIUE on the last game of a four-game road swing.
Key Factors to Consider
- Air Force struggles with turnovers, averaging 15.4 per game, and holds a 1-3 record at home. SIU-Edwardsville has a better away record (2-1) and a strong defense, limiting opponents to 65.4 points per game and 36.7% shooting. SIUE’s recent performances show more consistency compared to Air Force’s uneven outings.
- Limited recent H2H data available; no recent history showing dominance. Both teams have competitive squads, making this an evenly matched contest based on previous encounters.
- No specific injury reports affecting key players from either side were found for this match.
- The game is played at Air Force's home arena (Clune Arena), which may provide some home advantage for the Falcons despite their 1-3 home record. SIUE is concluding a taxing four-game road stretch, which may impact energy levels.
- Air Force looks to build momentum after a narrow win at home, aiming to improve their poor home performance. SIUE seeks to maintain their solid defensive form and capitalize on Air Force’s turnover issues to secure a road win.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Air Force Falcons: +125, SIU-Edwardsville Cougars: -150 | SIU-Edwardsville Cougars to win | ★★★☆☆ 66% |
| Spread | Air Force Falcons: +2.5 -110, SIU-Edwardsville Cougars: -2.5 -110 | SIU-Edwardsville Cougars to cover -2.5 spread | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 131.5 -115, Under: 131.5 -105 | Under 131.5 points | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | SIU-Edwardsville Cougars -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 131.5 21% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 131.5 at 21% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 22.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
SIU-Edwardsville Cougars are favored to win due to their stronger defense, better away performance, and Air Force’s turnover troubles, despite the Falcons playing at home.
Predicted Score: SIU-Edwardsville Cougars 68, Air Force Falcons 64