Match Analysis: Air Force Falcons vs LIU Sharks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 11, 2025
- Time: 9:00 PM UTC
- Location: Clune Arena, Colorado Springs
Game Overview
LIU Sharks (1-1) travel to face Air Force Falcons (0-2) in a non-conference matchup. LIU enters as the clear favorite despite playing on the road, while Air Force seeks their first win of the season after consecutive losses.
Key Factors to Consider
- LIU enters with momentum, having won their last game against IU Indianapolis 94-90 on the road. Air Force has lost both games to start the season, most recently a 74-54 home loss to Austin Peay. LIU averages 80.5 PPG while Air Force is scoring only 58.5 PPG. The offensive gap is substantial, with LIU's field goal percentage (49.59%) significantly outpacing Air Force (37.93%).
- LIU won the most recent matchup between these teams 63-54, demonstrating defensive prowess and control. LIU has established superiority in this series.
- No injury information available in provided data.
- Air Force plays at home (Clune Arena), which typically provides a 3-4 point advantage, but this is offset by their 0-1 home record and recent poor performance. LIU shows competence in road games (1-1).
- Air Force faces urgency to secure their first win at home, while LIU seeks to build momentum with a road victory. However, Air Force's defensive struggles (allowing 76.5 PPG) make this motivation unlikely to translate into results against a more efficient offensive team.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Air Force +116 / LIU -140 | LIU Sharks ML | β β β β β 78% |
| Spread | Air Force +2.5 (-120) / LIU -2.5 (-102) | LIU -2.5 | β β β β β 72% |
| Over/under | Over 138.5 (-110) / Under 138.5 (-110) | Under 138.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | LIU Sharks 34% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 138.5 11% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: LIU Sharks at 34% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 47.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
LIU Sharks to win convincingly despite playing on the road. Their superior offensive efficiency, recent form, and head-to-head dominance outweigh Air Force's home-court advantage. The total should lean under, as LIU's defensive intensity and Air Force's offensive struggles will likely keep the pace controlled.
Predicted Score: LIU 74, Air Force 66