Match Analysis: Air Force Falcons vs IUPUI Jaguars – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-23
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Clune Arena, 2168 Field House Drive, USAF Academy, CO 80840
Game Overview
The Air Force Falcons will host the IUPUI Jaguars in a non-conference NCAA men's basketball game at Clune Arena. This early-season matchup offers an opportunity for both teams to establish momentum, with the Falcons defending their home court and the Jaguars capping a road trip.
Key Factors to Consider
- Air Force Falcons have a mixed start with recent wins over SIU Edwardsville (77-63) and Alabama State (66-64) but also losses to Miami and others. The Jaguars demonstrated offensive strength recently, winning games with scores like 103-91 and 90-83, showing scoring capability but some inconsistency defensively.
- Limited recent head-to-head data is available for the 2025 season, but historically these teams have been competitive. The home court advantage likely favors Air Force, who typically leverage the high-altitude venue.
- No publicly reported significant injuries for either team ahead of this match, suggesting both squads will be close to full strength.
- The game is held at Clune Arena, noted for its unique atmosphere and altitude, favoring Air Force physically and strategically. IUPUI is concluding a road trip, which may induce some travel fatigue.
- Air Force is motivated to start their home campaign strongly after a modest start. IUPUI aims to finish their road trip on a positive note, increasing competitive intensity.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Air Force Falcons: -220, IUPUI Jaguars: 180 | Air Force Falcons win | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Air Force Falcons: -4.5 -110, IUPUI Jaguars: +4.5 -110 | Air Force Falcons cover -4.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: 181.5 -110, Under: 181.5 -110 | Under 181.5 points | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Air Force Falcons 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 181.5 15% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 181.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Air Force Falcons are favored to win at home due to recent form, home court advantage, and altitude conditions. The predicted margin involves covering the reported spread of -4.5.
Predicted Score: Air Force Falcons 89 – IUPUI Jaguars 82