Match Analysis: Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-13
- Time: 10:46 PM UTC
- Location: Nationals Park
Game Overview
The Washington Nationals (30-38) host the Miami Marlins (25-41) in an NL East matchup at Nationals Park. The Nationals are slight home favorites, with both teams struggling to maintain a winning record but still looking to improve performance as the season progresses.
Key Factors to Consider
- Washington has a slightly better record but has had offensive struggles, while Miami has shown lower run production and weaker pitching (5.06 ERA overall). Washington's offense has underperformed, while Miami's batting average is .247 with a .315 OBP and .375 slugging. Kyle Stowers leads Miami with 59 hits and 33 RBI.
- Recent head-to-head data suggests close contests, but no sweeping trends stand out. Edward Cabrera (Marlins) is 2-3, 3.89 ERA career against Washington.
- No major injuries reported affecting either lineup directly for this match.
- Game is played at Nationals Park, which slightly favors home teams in low-scoring, evenly-matched games.
- Both teams are in the lower half of their division and seeking momentum before tougher opponents. Washington is slightly more at home and looking to 'wake up' their offense.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Washington Nationals: -116, Miami Marlins: -102 | Washington Nationals | ★★★☆☆ 52% |
Spread | Miami Marlins: -1.5 152, Washington Nationals: +1.5 -184 | Washington Nationals +1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over: 8.5 -124, Under: 8.5 +102 | Under 8.5 | ★★★☆☆ 51% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Washington Nationals -3% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8.5 3% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The Nationals are favored by predictive models and home advantage, but the difference is marginal. Expect a low-scoring game with a lean toward Washington by a narrow margin.
Predicted Score: Washington Nationals 4 – Miami Marlins 3