Match Analysis: UNLV Rebels vs San Diego St Aztecs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-22
- Time: 1:05 AM UTC
- Location: Sloan Park, Mesa, Arizona
Game Overview
This NCAA baseball match features the UNLV Hustlin' Rebels against the San Diego State Aztecs in the first round of the Mountain West Tournament. UNLV enters the game on a strong note, riding a four-game winning streak and a recent series sweep against San Diego State on their home turf. San Diego State carries a more mixed regular season record and aims to upset the higher-seeded Rebels to advance in the tournament.
Key Factors to Consider
- UNLV has shown superior recent form, including dominant wins such as a 13-2 run-rule victory over San Diego State and a four-game winning streak overall. Their offense is led by Dean Toigo, who has a 19-game hitting streak, 18 home runs, and a .384 batting average. San Diego State has struggled more with an overall 15-29 record but has key contributors like Nevan Noonan batting .345 with 8 home runs.
- In the recent series in late April, UNLV swept San Diego State with convincing wins, including 10-3 and 13-2 outcomes in Las Vegas, showing clear dominance. The Rebels have won all three meetings in that series decisively.
- No specific injury reports were found for either team ahead of the game, indicating both squads should be close to full strength.
- The game is played at a neutral site Sloan Park in Mesa, Arizona, potentially negating some home-field advantages. The Rebels' confidence is bolstered by their recent winning streak and strong offensive output, while the Aztecs face pressure as underdogs.
- UNLV, as the No. 4 seed with momentum, is motivated to maintain their winning streak and advance deep into the tournament. San Diego State, as the No. 5 seed with a below .500 record, are motivated to upset and extend their season but enter as underdogs.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | UNLV Rebels: -298, San Diego St Aztecs: 220 | UNLV Rebels | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Spread | UNLV Rebels: -1.5 runs, San Diego St Aztecs: +1.5 runs | UNLV Rebels -1.5 runs | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Over/under | over: 8.5 runs, under: 8.5 runs | Over 8.5 runs | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | UNLV Rebels -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: UNLV Rebels at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
UNLV Hustlin' Rebels are favored to win given their superior recent form, head-to-head dominance, and stronger offensive production. Expect them to control the game and advance in the tournament.
Predicted Score: UNLV Rebels 9 – San Diego St Aztecs 4
