Match Analysis: Troy Trojans vs Texas State Bobcats – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-22
- Time: 2:00 PM UTC
- Location: Riddle-Pace Field, Troy, Alabama
Game Overview
The upcoming NCAA baseball match features the Troy Trojans hosting the Texas State Bobcats. Troy has been a strong team this season with a record around 37-19, showing impressive offensive and defensive capabilities including recent dominant wins such as 23-6 and 14-12 at home. Texas State has struggled more this season with a record near 26-29, suffering several heavy losses and inconsistent performance but occasionally showing resilience with wins in tight games. Troy enters as favorites with home advantage and better overall season form.
Key Factors to Consider
- Troy Trojans have demonstrated strong form in 2025 with multiple high-scoring wins and consistent pitching performances. Texas State Bobcats have been inconsistent, with a losing record and some lopsided defeats, but have managed close victories sporadically. Troy’s superior win-loss ratio and home advantage heavily favor their performance.
- In the recent matchup on April 26, 2025, Troy defeated Texas State 9-4, showing clear dominance. Historically within the season, Troy has maintained superiority over Texas State, indicating psychological and tactical advantages.
- No specific injury reports are available for either team close to this match date, implying both teams likely field near-full strength squads.
- Playing at home, Troy benefits from familiar conditions at Riddle-Pace Field. Weather conditions on May 22, 2025, are expected to be conducive to play, with no reported disruptions or extreme weather.
- Troy is motivated to solidify their strong season record and improve standings in the Sun Belt Conference. Texas State looks to upset a higher-ranked opponent and improve their sub-.500 season record, adding an element of competitive underdog drive.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Texas State Bobcats: 200, Troy Trojans: -270 | Troy Trojans | ★★★★☆ 85% |
Spread | Texas State Bobcats: -2.5 -130, Troy Trojans: +2.5 100 | Troy Trojans -2.5 | ★★★★☆ 80% |
Over/under | Over 13.5: -115, Under 13.5: -115 | Over 13.5 runs | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Troy Trojans 0% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 13.5 12% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 13.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Troy Trojans are predicted to win comfortably based on stronger recent performances, home field advantage, and superior odds offered by bookmakers.
Predicted Score: Troy Trojans 8 – 4 Texas State Bobcats