Match Analysis: Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-28
- Time: 7:08 PM UTC
- Location: Toronto Blue Jays Home Stadium
Game Overview
Toronto Blue Jays (93-68) host the Tampa Bay Rays (77-84) in the AL East matchup. Blue Jays have a strong home record (53-27) while Rays struggle on the road (36-44). The Blue Jays are motivated to maintain their playoff push and have senior pitcher Kevin Gausman starting, who has been strong in recent outings. The Rays, in contrast, have endured a recent scoring drought and are on a losing streak.
Key Factors to Consider
- Blue Jays are in solid form with a three-game winning streak, excelling at home and outperforming their division rivals. Rays are struggling with a three-game losing skid and poor road form, allowing 15 runs in their last three games.
- Recent matchups heavily favor the Blue Jays, including a 5-1 win in one game and two recent wins including 5-1 and 4-2, indicating Toronto's dominance in the series.
- No major injuries impacting starting pitchers. Both starting pitchers are expected to perform close to their season averages.
- Game played at Toronto's home park, a known hitter-friendly venue. Weather and field conditions do not indicate significant impact.
- Toronto Blue Jays are pushing for playoff positioning and have higher motivation compared to the out-of-contention Rays.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | home: -190, away: 160 | Toronto Blue Jays | β β β β β 78% |
Spread | home: 114, away: -137 | Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 | β β β β β 72% |
Over/under | over: -115, under: -105 | Under 7.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Toronto Blue Jays -4% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 7.5 17% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 7.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Toronto Blue Jays to win moneyline and cover the -1.5 spread; game total to go under 7.5 runs.
Predicted Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4 – Tampa Bay Rays 2