Match Analysis: Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-05
- Time: 7:08 PM UTC
- Location: Rogers Centre
Game Overview
The Philadelphia Phillies (37-24) face the Toronto Blue Jays (32-29) in an interleague matchup. The Phillies are batting .256 with a solid pitching staff (3.96 ERA), while the Blue Jays enter hot, going 4-1 in their last five games. Probable pitchers: Jesus Luzardo (PHI, 5-1, 3.58 ERA) vs. Chris Bassitt (TOR, unlisted ERA for this start).
Key Factors to Consider
- Phillies are strong on the road (16-9 as favorites away); Blue Jays are 15-12 in road games and 3-2 ATS last five. Blue Jays have recent momentum, 4-1 in last five overall[1][2][4].
- No clear dominant head-to-head trend; both teams have been competitive. Blue Jays are 3-2 against the spread vs. similar opponents[1][4].
- No major injuries reported for key starters; both teams likely at full strength.
- Weather expected to be mild (67°F, 12% rain, 4 mph wind) with no significant impact on play[1].
- Both teams are in the playoff hunt; Phillies look to maintain momentum, Blue Jays to capitalize on recent hot streak.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Philadelphia Phillies: -118, Toronto Blue Jays: 100 | Philadelphia Phillies | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Spread | Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+150), Toronto Blue Jays: +1.5 (-182) | Toronto Blue Jays (+1.5) | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over: 8 (-115), Under: 8 (-105) | Under 8 runs | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Philadelphia Phillies 7% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8 7% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 8 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Slight edge to the Philadelphia Phillies based on road performance and slightly better pitching, though the Blue Jays' recent form and home advantage balance the outlook. Predicted close game with Phillies favored by a narrow margin, but Blue Jays could keep it tight.
Predicted Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4, Toronto Blue Jays 3