Match Analysis: Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-11
- Time: 7:08 PM UTC
- Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario
Game Overview
Toronto Blue Jays host the Houston Astros in the final game of their three-game series with both teams splitting the first two games closely. The Blue Jays hold a slight edge in overall season performance and home dominance.
Key Factors to Consider
- Toronto Blue Jays are 83-62, strong at home with a +22 games over .500 record; Astros are 79-67, about .500 on the road. Toronto's pitching staff has a 4.22 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and .241 opponent batting average, while the Astros have been inconsistent this season.
- The series is currently split 1-1. Toronto won the first game 4-3 while Houston took the second 3-2, both tight contests pointing to closely matched teams.
- No major injuries reported that will significantly impact starting pitchers Kevin Gausman (TOR) or Cristian Javier (HOU), both scheduled starters for this game.
- Game played indoors at Rogers Centre eliminates weather impact. Blue Jays enjoy home crowd advantage in this crucial late-season game.
- Both teams are jockeying for playoff positioning, but Toronto leads in division standings and appears more motivated to maintain home field advantage in October.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Toronto Blue Jays: -162, Houston Astros: +136 | Toronto Blue Jays | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (132), Houston Astros +1.5 (-160) | Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 8.5 (-106), Under 8.5 (-114) | Under 8.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Toronto Blue Jays -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 8.5 5% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Toronto Blue Jays moneyline
Predicted Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4, Houston Astros 2