Match Analysis: Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-12
- Time: 11:08 PM UTC
- Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario
Game Overview
The Toronto Blue Jays host the Baltimore Orioles in a late regular season MLB matchup. The Blue Jays lead the AL East and showcase solid offense and pitching depth, while the Orioles are below .500 and aiming to build momentum.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Blue Jays are 84-62, with recent mixed form but strong overall offense (.268 AVG, 727 runs) and solid starting pitching led by Chris Bassitt (3.97 ERA). Orioles are 69-77, relying on a strong Trevor Rogers start (1.51 ERA) but weaker lineup and defense.
- Bassitt has struggled against Baltimore over the last five starts (6.39 ERA). Orioles have been underdogs lately but have pulled off wins, including a recent 3-2 victory over Pittsburgh. Blue Jays have home advantage and favorable historic results generally.
- No major injuries reported for either team impacting the starting lineup or rotation on this date.
- Game played at Rogers Centre with a hitter-friendly park factor. Weather conditions are stable with no expected interruptions.
- Blue Jays motivated to maintain division lead and home field advantage for playoffs. Orioles focus on ending season strong and building confidence for next year.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | home: -134, away: 114 | Toronto Blue Jays | β β β β β 73% |
Spread | home: 150, away: -182 | Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | over: -105, under: -115 | Under 8 Runs | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Toronto Blue Jays 5% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8 3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Toronto Blue Jays at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Toronto Blue Jays on Moneyline, Blue Jays -1.5 Spread, Under 8 Runs
Predicted Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4 – Baltimore Orioles 2