Match Analysis: Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-01
- Time: 11:36 PM UTC
- Location: George M. Steinbrenner Field, Tampa, Florida
Game Overview
The Seattle Mariners visit the Tampa Bay Rays in an important late-season MLB matchup. Seattle holds a better season record (73-64) compared to Tampa Bay (67-69) and enters as a slight favorite on the moneyline despite being on the road. Both teams are motivated with playoff implications and have recent pitching matchups favoring Seattle's Luis Castillo.
Key Factors to Consider
- Seattle Mariners have a stronger record and slightly better pitching staff ERA (3.96) compared to Tampa Bay. Mariners have been 56.5% successful as favorites at -120 or better and have won 73 games total. Rays have struggled slightly with a losing record of 67-69 and only 43.5% ATS success as underdogs.
- Seattle swept the Rays in their last three meetings, with Luis Castillo holding a 2-1 record and 3.16 ERA in three career starts against Tampa Bay.
- No significant injuries reported for either team affecting starting pitching or key hitters.
- The game is at Tampa Bayβs home field, but Seattleβs strong recent road performances and superior form negate some home advantage. Weather and field conditions are typical for Tampa Bay with no adverse impacts known.
- Both teams are jockeying for postseason positioning with Seattle playing to consolidate a wildcard spot and Tampa Bay trying to stay competitive. Seattleβs stronger recent performance and roster depth provide a slight edge in motivation.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Seattle Mariners -120, Tampa Bay Rays +102 | Seattle Mariners | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Seattle Mariners -1.5 +136, Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 -164 | Seattle Mariners -1.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Over 8.5 -110, Under 8.5 -110 | Under 8.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Seattle Mariners 3% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8.5 18% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Seattle Mariners to win outright on the moneyline, cover the -1.5 run spread, and the game to go under 8.5 runs.
Predicted Score: Seattle Mariners 4, Tampa Bay Rays 2