Match Analysis: Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-19
- Time: 11:35 PM UTC
- Location: George M. Steinbrenner Field, Tampa, Florida
Game Overview
The New York Yankees visit the Tampa Bay Rays in an early evening MLB matchup. The Yankees hold a moderate edge as favorites with a solid pitching matchup between Carlos Rodon (Yankees, 12-7, 3.25 ERA) and Shane Baz (Rays, 8-9, 4.93 ERA). The betting markets reflect a clear favorite in the Yankees, despite playing on the road, with tight odds on spread and total runs.
Key Factors to Consider
- Yankees have a stronger overall record (67-57) compared to Rays (61-64) and better recent form, especially defensively and pitching-wise. Rays have struggled to maintain consistency, impacting their gamesβ total scoring.
- Recent head-to-head data suggests a competitive series but the Yankees have had more consistent success particularly at run line and moneyline in matchups this season.
- No major injuries reported that would significantly impact starting pitchers or core offensive players for either team.
- Game is played in Tampa under typical summer conditions; no weather or notable external disruptions expected. Yankees are on a short road trip but experienced teams generally manage travel well.
- Yankees are pushing to solidify playoff positioning and have strong incentive to win on the road. Rays are less motivated with a losing record and likely in a rebuilding phase.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Yankees: -140, Rays: +127 | Yankees | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Yankees -1.5: 117, Rays +1.5: -137 | Rays +1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 8.5: -105, Under 8.5: -115 | Under 8.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | New York Yankees -9% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8.5 5% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
New York Yankees moneyline -140 for the win, Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 run spread, and Under 8.5 total runs
Predicted Score: Yankees 4 – Rays 2