Match Analysis: Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-05
- Time: 11:36 PM UTC
- Location: George M. Steinbrenner Field, Tampa, Florida
Game Overview
The Tampa Bay Rays host the Cleveland Guardians in a tightly matched late-season MLB game with playoff implications for both teams. The Rays are on a hot streak, riding a seven to eight game winning run and hold the home-field advantage. Cleveland presents inconsistent offense but solid pitching led by Gavin Williams.
Key Factors to Consider
- Tampa Bay Rays have won 7-8 straight games, averaging 5.6 runs scored and allowing 2.6 runs per game over recent matches. Cleveland Guardians have a mediocre 69-70 record with a .223 team batting average and 3.97 ERA pitching, with Gavin Williams as a strong starting pitcher but recent offensive inconsistency.
- Close H2H history: Rays lead slightly with 35 wins vs. Guardians 34 this season. Rays have 16 home wins to Cleveland's 14 road wins. Prior meeting on Sept 5 saw Rays win 4-2.
- No major injury impacts reported on either side. Both teams near full strength for this matchup.
- Game played at Tampaβs home field, George M. Steinbrenner Field, favoring Rays. Venue is a spring training facility with unfamiliar dimensions possibly suppressing offense. The game time is evening in Eastern Time.
- Rays motivated by current winning streak and push for wild card. Guardians have a challenging upcoming schedule, increasing urgency to earn a win here.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | home: -142, away: +120 | Tampa Bay Rays | β β β β β 78% |
Spread | home: 150, away: -182 | Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Over/under | over: -118, under: -104 | Under 8 runs | β β β β β 72% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Tampa Bay Rays 6% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8 12% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Tampa Bay Rays win moneyline; Tampa Bay Rays cover -1.5 spread; Under 8 total runs
Predicted Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4 - Cleveland Guardians 2
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