Match Analysis: St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-25
- Time: 11:16 PM UTC
- Location: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, Missouri
Game Overview
The San Diego Padres visit the St. Louis Cardinals for a critical MLB matchup as both teams hover just above .500 in the standings. The Padres are slight favorites on the moneyline despite recent struggles on the road, while the Cardinals have shown stronger home form but weaker pitching recently.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Padres have gone 55-48 overall but are inconsistent offensively, recently scoring 4+ runs only once in the last 5 games, and have struggled on the road with a 24-30 record. The Cardinals are 53-51 overall and 30-20 at home but their back-end rotation has been shaky, allowing 5+ earned runs in most recent starts.
- Padres have homefield advantage historically against the Cardinals but have lost 12 of their last 15 games at Busch Stadium. The Padres also have a slightly better recent win % as betting favorites (60%), indicating strong performance when expected to win.
- No significant injuries reported for key starters on either team for this matchup; starting pitchers are Nick Pivetta for Padres and Miles Mikolas for Cardinals, with Pivetta showing better recent form.
- Weather and stadium conditions typical for late July in St. Louis with no adverse impacts expected. The game being at Busch Stadium gives the Cardinals home advantage.
- Both teams are fighting for positioning in tight standings. Padres appear motivated to bounce back after a small losing streak, especially given recent poor performances on the road. Cardinals are motivated at home but have struggled with pitching consistency.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Padres -142, Cardinals +120 | San Diego Padres | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Padres -1.5 at +125, Cardinals +1.5 at -150 | San Diego Padres -1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 8.5 -105, Under 8.5 -115 | Under 8.5 | β β β ββ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | San Diego Padres -5% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8.5 12% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: San Diego Padres to win; Spread: Padres -1.5; Over/Under: Under 8.5 runs
Predicted Score: San Diego Padres 5, St. Louis Cardinals 3