Match Analysis: St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-28
- Time: 6:16 PM UTC
- Location: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
Game Overview
The St. Louis Cardinals host the Pittsburgh Pirates in an MLB matchup featuring starting pitchers Sonny Gray for the Cardinals and Bubba Chandler for the Pirates. Both teams have battled recently with close encounters, the Cardinals looking to leverage home advantage after a tight 7-6 win in their last meeting.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Cardinals have been solid at home with recent wins, including a 5-0 shutout against the Pirates earlier in the season. The Pirates have struggled on the road and enter this game after a narrow loss to the Cardinals, showing competitive but inconsistent performance.
- Recent head-to-head meetings have been competitive, including a close 7-6 win by the Cardinals on August 25 and a 5-0 Cardinals win earlier in the year. The Cardinals have a slight edge in recent encounters.
- No major injuries reported affecting starting players or key lineups for either team as of game time.
- Weather conditions at Busch Stadium are expected to be clear with no significant wind impact that might affect hitting or pitching. The Cardinals benefit from familiar home conditions.
- The Cardinals are motivated to maintain their edge in the division and secure home field dominance, while the Pirates are aiming to improve their road record and gain momentum late in the season.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Pirates: +104, St. Louis Cardinals: -122 | St. Louis Cardinals win | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Pittsburgh Pirates: -196 (-1.5), St. Louis Cardinals: +162 (+1.5) | Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: -105 (8.5), Under: -115 (8.5) | Under 8.5 runs | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | St. Louis Cardinals 4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 8.5 3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: St. Louis Cardinals at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 4.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
St. Louis Cardinals are favored to win, leveraging home advantage, stronger pitching matchup, and recent successful head-to-head performance.
Predicted Score: St. Louis Cardinals 5 – Pittsburgh Pirates 3