Match Analysis: St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-28
- Time: 6:16 PM UTC
- Location: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, Missouri
Game Overview
The Pittsburgh Pirates (59-75) travel to face the St. Louis Cardinals (65-69) at Busch Stadium. The Pirates hold a 2-1 series lead and will start Braxton Ashcraft, who has a strong 2.70 ERA and 4-2 record, while the Cardinals counter with struggling Miles Mikolas (6-10, 5.17 ERA). The game features a total set at 8.5 runs with close moneyline odds favoring the Cardinals slightly as home favorites.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Pirates have shown recent improvement, winning two of the first three games in the series and playing better pitching recently. The Cardinals have underperformed overall, with Mikolas' recent form weak (14 ER in last 17.1 innings) and a middling 50% record when favorites around -122 odds.
- This seasonβs series is close, with the Pirates leading 2-1 so far. Historically, the Cardinals have a slight edge but recent performance favors Pittsburgh's momentum.
- No critical injuries reported for either team affecting starting rotation or lineup significantly.
- Game played at Busch Stadium favors the Cardinals slightly due to home advantage, but Piratesβ Ashcraft has strong road numbers (2.28 ERA in 23.2 road innings) reducing impact of venue.
- Pirates motivated to complete series win and build momentum heading into challenging upcoming schedule; Cardinals seek to avoid losing series at home and improve below .500 record.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Pittsburgh Pirates +104, St. Louis Cardinals -122 | Pittsburgh Pirates | β β β ββ 65% |
Spread | Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 -196, St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 +162 | Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 | β β β β β 72% |
Over/under | Over 8.5 -105, Under 8.5 -115 | Under 8.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Pittsburgh Pirates 10% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8.5 7% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Pirates moneyline
Predicted Score: Pirates 4 – Cardinals 3