Match Analysis: St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: May 3, 2025
- Time: 6:15 PM UTC
- Location: Busch Stadium, St. Louis
Game Overview
The New York Mets (21-11, 1st in NL East) face the St. Louis Cardinals (14-18, 4th in NL Central) in a matchup featuring contrasting team forms. The Mets enter with a 6-4 last 10-game record and a two-game win streak, while the Cardinals are 5-5 in their last 10 and on a one-game skid. Mets starter Tylor Megill (3-2, 1.74 ERA, 39 Ks in 31 IP) holds a significant edge over Erick Fedde (1-3, 4.68 ERA, 17 Ks in 32.2 IP).
Key Factors to Consider
- Mets rank among MLB's top teams with strong pitching (Megill's 1.74 ERA) and 21-11 record. Cardinals struggle at home (4-13) and offensively.
- No direct recent H2H data available, but Mets show superior season-long performance metrics.
- No injury updates provided in available data.
- Brendan Donovan Bobblehead promotion could boost Cardinals' home attendance but unlikely to impact on-field performance.
- Mets aim to maintain NL East dominance; Cardinals seek to climb from NL Central basement.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | NYM -144 / STL +122 | Mets moneyline | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Spread | NYM -1.5 (+112) / STL +1.5 (-134) | Mets cover -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Over/under | O8.5 (-105) / U8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 runs | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | New York Mets 33% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8.5 3% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: New York Mets at 33% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 27.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Mets win behind Megill's dominance against Cardinals' weak offense. Expect low-scoring game with Mets covering spread.
Predicted Score: NYM 4-2 STL
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