Match Analysis: St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-29
- Time: 11:46 PM UTC
- Location: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, Missouri
Game Overview
The St. Louis Cardinals (55-53) host the Miami Marlins (50-55) in a midseason MLB matchup. The Cardinals are slight favorites given home advantage and stronger recent performance, aiming to maintain momentum in a tightly contested National League matchup.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Cardinals have a modest winning record (55-53) and are performing better at home. The Marlins (50-55) have started the second half well, winning their past three series but lost the first game of the current series 7-1. Offensively, the Marlins rank 19th in runs per game (4.30) with a below average pitching staff ERA of 4.44, while the Cardinals show more balanced metrics.
- The Cardinals lead the current series 1-0 with a convincing 7-1 win in the opener. Historical matchups slightly favor the Cardinals, especially given home field strength.
- No major injuries reported that would significantly alter team performance for either side.
- Game played at Busch Stadium favors the Cardinals. No notable weather or travel disruptions expected. The Marlins face a tough road environment.
- The Cardinals are motivated to solidify their position and maintain home dominance. The Marlins aim to rebound aggressively after the last loss to maintain late season competitiveness.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Miami +138 / St. Louis -164 | St. Louis Cardinals | β β β β β 70% |
Spread | Miami +1.5 -152 / St. Louis -1.5 +126 | St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 8 -105 / Under 8 -115 | Under 8 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | St. Louis Cardinals -3% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8 3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
St. Louis Cardinals moneyline and spread (-1.5) - predicting a strong home win with moderate scoring under 8.0 runs total.
Predicted Score: St. Louis Cardinals 5 - Miami Marlins 2
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