Match Analysis: St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-26
- Time: 6:15 PM UTC
- Location: Busch Stadium, Saint Louis, MO
Game Overview
This MLB matchup features the Chicago Cubs visiting the St. Louis Cardinals in game 4 of their series. The Cubs currently lead the NL Central with a 47-33 record, while the Cardinals hold a 44-37 record, placing third in the division. Both teams are competitive postseason contenders, making this game critical for positioning in the playoff race[1][3][4].
Key Factors to Consider
- Chicago Cubs have shown strong form this season, leading the division and demonstrating consistent offensive and pitching capabilities. The Cardinals have also played well at home, with a solid record in Busch Stadium, but have struggled somewhat against top division rivals like the Cubs. Recent series play indicates tight contests with both teams scoring in double digits in past games[1].
- Historically and this season, the Cubs have held a slight edge over the Cardinals, especially in away games. Their pitching staff has effectively limited the Cardinals' offense, while the Cubs' lineup has capitalized on scoring opportunities. Previous meetings this season have been close, but the Cubs have won a majority of recent encounters in this series[1].
- No significant injuries have been reported for either team that would heavily impact starting lineups or bullpen strength for this game. Both teams are expected to field near full-strength rosters[1].
- The game is at Busch Stadium, giving the Cardinals home-field advantage. Weather conditions are expected to be typical for late June with no forecasted adverse weather, so environment should not impact gameplay. Attendance and fan support favor the Cardinals[3].
- With division standings tight and the Cubs leading the NL Central, both teams are highly motivated to win. The Cardinals aim to close the gap and maintain playoff hopes, while the Cubs look to consolidate their divisional lead and gain momentum for the postseason[1].
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Chicago Cubs: -142, St. Louis Cardinals: 120 | Chicago Cubs win | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Spread | Chicago Cubs -1.5: 112, St. Louis Cardinals +1.5: -134 | Chicago Cubs -1.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Over/under | Over 9: -115, Under 9: -105 | Over 9 runs | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Chicago Cubs -6% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 9 12% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 9 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given current form, head-to-head dynamics, and home advantage, the Chicago Cubs are favored to win, but the Cardinals are expected to put up strong resistance. A narrow Cubs victory is most likely.
Predicted Score: Chicago Cubs 5 – 3 St. Louis Cardinals