Match Analysis: St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-11
- Time: 12:16 AM UTC
- Location: Busch Stadium, St. Louis
Game Overview
This MLB matchup features the St. Louis Cardinals hosting the Atlanta Braves. The Cardinals enter as slight favorites with a moneyline around -118, while the Braves are underdogs near +100 odds. The game total is set at 8.5 runs with a close spread on the runline.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Cardinals hold a better overall record (49-44) versus the Braves (40-51). St. Louis shows strong home form and performs well when favored, boasting a 19-12 record as favorites with moneyline odds at or below -118. The Braves struggle on the road and as underdogs (4-14), indicating some recent inconsistency.
- Recent head-to-head data and betting models assign the Cardinals a slight edge with a 52-53% implied win probability. The Braves have more difficulty covering spreads against St. Louis.
- No significant injury reports for either team that could drastically impact starting pitching or lineup strength have been noted.
- Playing at Busch Stadium provides St. Louis with home-field advantage. Weather conditions are expected to be typical summer conditions without impacting scoring heavily.
- The Cardinals are pushing to remain competitive in the division with a better standing and have motivation to capitalize on home advantage. The Braves, below .500, aim to rebound but may lack momentum.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | St. Louis -118, Atlanta +100 | St. Louis Cardinals | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | St. Louis +1.5 -192, Atlanta -1.5 +158 | St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Over/under | Over 8.5 -105, Under 8.5 -115 | Under 8.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | St. Louis Cardinals -0% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8.5 5% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
St. Louis Cardinals to win moneyline, cover the +1.5 run spread, and the game to go under 8.5 total runs.
Predicted Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4, Atlanta Braves 3