Match Analysis: Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-26
- Time: 1:41 AM UTC
- Location: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, Washington
Game Overview
The Seattle Mariners host the San Diego Padres in an interleague matchup featuring starting pitchers Bryce Miller (Mariners) and JP Sears (Padres). The Mariners are slight favorites at home, with a run line set at -1.5 and a total of 8 runs.
Key Factors to Consider
- Padres hold a slight edge in overall record (74-57 vs. 70-61) and are coming off an 8-2 loss to the Dodgers. Mariners have home advantage and somewhat inconsistent performance with Bryce Millerβs 5.87 ERA on the mound. Padresβ JP Sears has struggled recently against Seattle with an 0-5 record in last 5 starts vs. them.
- In recent starts against Seattle, JP Sears is 0-5 with a 4.03 ERA, indicating difficulty shutting down Mariners' lineup. Mariners have an advantage in the pitching matchup and have performed well at home against the Padres historically.
- No significant injuries reported for either side as of the game date.
- Game played at Marinersβ home park which favors Seattleβs bats and bullpen. Weather conditions not reported as a major factor.
- Both teams are playoff contenders but Padres face tough schedule ahead. Mariners motivated to defend home turf and push for better positioning, giving them a slight motivational edge.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Seattle Mariners -134, San Diego Padres +114 | Seattle Mariners | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Seattle Mariners -1.5 (+152), San Diego Padres +1.5 (-184) | Seattle Mariners -1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 8 (-105), Under 8 (-115) | Under 8 runs | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Seattle Mariners 1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8 8% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Seattle Mariners to win head-to-head and cover the -1.5 run line, with the total going under 8 runs.
Predicted Score: Seattle Mariners 4 – San Diego Padres 2