Match Analysis: Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-13
- Time: 1:40 AM UTC
- Location: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, Washington
Game Overview
The Seattle Mariners host the New York Yankees in a closely matched MLB contest. Both teams hold strong winning records this season, with the Yankees at 23-17 and Mariners at 22-17. The Yankees, leading the AL East, boast a top-tier offense averaging 5.88 runs per game and are led by Aaron Judge, who is batting .409 with 14 home runs. Seattle's pitching and hitting have been competitive but slightly less consistent recently. The game features starting pitchers Clarke Schmidt for the Yankees and Emmanuel Hancock for the Mariners, both with limited innings this season.
Key Factors to Consider
- New York Yankees have an elite offense (1st in MLB in runs per game) but have been inconsistent on the mound with a 3.71 ERA. Seattle Mariners have a balanced team but have struggled against the spread and have seen recent games go over total runs frequently. Yankees have won two of three recent series and rebounded well after losses.
- The teams are closely matched in win-loss records this season. Public betting heavily favors the Mariners (78% of bets), suggesting confidence in their home advantage despite Yankees being the favorites on moneyline odds.
- No significant injury updates were highlighted for either team, implying both should have their main rosters available.
- Weather at T-Mobile Park is expected to be mild with 61°F, 9% chance of rain, and light wind of 4 mph, unlikely to significantly affect play.
- The Yankees seek to maintain their AL East lead with strong offensive output, while the Mariners are motivated to capitalize on home advantage and improve their recent form against the spread.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | New York Yankees: -136, Seattle Mariners: +116 | New York Yankees win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | New York Yankees: -1.5 @ +118, Seattle Mariners: +1.5 @ -142 | New York Yankees cover -1.5 spread | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | Over 8.5: -105, Under 8.5: -115 | Over 8.5 runs | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | New York Yankees 1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 8.5 11% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 8.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The New York Yankees are favored to win due to their superior offensive production and recent strong performances against competitive teams. Given the pitching matchup and strong hitting, a Yankees victory is likely, though the Mariners' home advantage and public backing add uncertainty. The game is expected to be moderately high scoring, with potential to exceed the total runs line.
Predicted Score: New York Yankees 6 – Seattle Mariners 4