Match Analysis: San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-26
- Time: 2:16 AM UTC
- Location: Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA
Game Overview
San Francisco Giants host the New York Mets in a National League matchup. The Giants are slight favorites on the moneyline and run line, with a 7.5 run total set.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Giants hold a 54-49 record while the Mets are somewhat better at 59-44. San Francisco has struggled recently with a 1-4 record in their last five games. Mets have been more consistent and have a better record as favorites and underdogs this season.
- Giants have a 56.3% implied win probability. No direct recent H2H stats available, but Giants have covered the spread less often recently.
- No significant injury reports impacting key players or pitchers noted for this game.
- Game is at Oracle Park, usually pitcher-friendly. Mets starting pitcher Clay Holmes has an excellent ERA (0.00) but limited sample (0-0 record). Giants are favored at home with moderate home field edge.
- Both teams are vying for playoff positioning in late July; Mets have slightly better motivation with superior overall record.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Giants: -138, Mets: +118 | Giants | β β β ββ 65% |
Spread | Giants -1.5: +158, Mets +1.5: -192 | Mets +1.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Over/under | Over 7.5: -104, Under 7.5: -118 | Under 7.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | San Francisco Giants 3% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 7.5 2% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: San Francisco Giants at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 4.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Giants to win moneyline, Mets to cover spread, Under 7.5 runs total
Predicted Score: Giants 4, Mets 3