Match Analysis: San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-03
- Time: 8:11 PM UTC
- Location: PETCO Park, San Diego, California
Game Overview
The San Diego Padres host the St. Louis Cardinals in a National League matchup. Both teams are mid-tier in the standings, with Padres at 61-50 and Cardinals at 56-56. Padres enter on strong recent form and home advantage, while Cardinals aim to recover after recent setbacks.
Key Factors to Consider
- Padres have won 6 of their last 7 games and average 4.9 runs per game at home while allowing about 3.4 runs. Cardinals have a balanced record, but recent form is weaker. Starting pitchers are Dylan Cease (Padres, 3-10, 4.79 ERA) and Andre Pallante (Cardinals, 6-7, 4.62 ERA).
- Though the Cardinals won their last meeting 8-5, Padres lead the overall series with 52 wins to Cardinals' 61, including 37 home wins. Offensive averages are close with Padres scoring slightly higher at home (4.09 vs. Cardinals 3.98 runs per game).
- No significant injuries reported for either team impacting starters or core lineup.
- Game is at Padresβ home ballpark, PETCO Park, which favors Padres especially defensively in pitching-friendly conditions.
- Padres are motivated to maintain strong position in playoff contention with recent momentum; Cardinals look to bounce back after mixed results and road challenges.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | San Diego Padres -188, St. Louis Cardinals +158 | San Diego Padres | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Padres -1.5 +106, Cardinals +1.5 -128 | San Diego Padres -1.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Over/under | Over 8 -115, Under 8 -105 | Under 8 | β β β ββ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | San Diego Padres -0% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8 13% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
San Diego Padres moneyline, Padres -1.5 spread, under 8 total runs
Predicted Score: San Diego Padres 5, St. Louis Cardinals 3