Match Analysis: San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-31
- Time: 1:41 AM UTC
- Location: Petco Park (San Diego, CA)
Game Overview
The San Diego Padres host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Petco Park. The Padres have dominated their recent head-to-head meetings, currently riding a 9-game winning streak against the Pirates and have won all three 2025 matchups so far, most recently a 4-0 road win on May 4, 2025. Both teams have struggled with consistency, but the Padres have shown superior recent form specifically in this matchup.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Padres have displayed strong pitching and timely hitting in recent games, especially against the Pirates, while the Pirates have been inconsistent offensively. The Padres have not allowed more than 2 runs to the Pirates in their last five encounters, and the largest Padres win over the Pirates by run-difference this season was a 9-4 victory on May 2, 2025.
- All-time, the Padres hold a 243-274 win record (47% win rate) against the Pirates, but recent trends are overwhelmingly in San Diego's favor (9-game win streak, two of which are the largest streaks in history). They have won 10 out of the last 15 matchups across the last three seasons.
- No significant recent injury news affecting either team’s key players for this matchup.
- Home advantage for the Padres at Petco Park, which is considered pitcher-friendly and generally lower scoring. Weather forecast is favorable for baseball—no rain or extreme temperatures expected.
- Padres are motivated to extend their historic win streak and build momentum, while the Pirates are looking to break the streak and stabilize their season.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | San Diego Padres: -230, Pittsburgh Pirates: 190 | San Diego Padres | High (80%) |
Spread | Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-122), San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+102) | San Diego Padres -1.5 | Moderate (60%) |
Over/under | Over: 7.5 (-110), Under: 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 | Moderate-High (65%) |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | San Diego Padres -4% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 7.5 5% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 7.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
San Diego Padres are favored to win this matchup due to their recent head-to-head dominance, superior pitching, and home-field advantage. Confidence in a Padres win is high based on current form and streaks.
Predicted Score: San Diego Padres 4, Pittsburgh Pirates 1