Match Analysis: San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-14
- Time: 8:10 PM UTC
- Location: Petco Park
Game Overview
The San Diego Padres host the Colorado Rockies at Petco Park, with the Padres holding an 81-68 record against the Rockies' 41-108. The Padres lead the series 2-1 and have a strong bullpen advantage, while Colorado's starting pitcher German Marquez struggles, and San Diego's Yu Darvish shows moderate effectiveness despite a high ERA.
Key Factors to Consider
- Padres are significantly better overall (81-68) and hold a current series advantage. The Rockies have the worst record in MLB (41-108) with poor starting pitching and road performance.
- Padres lead the series 2-1 and have outperformed the Rockies in recent matchups, especially at home in Petco Park.
- No significant injuries reported for either team affecting starting pitchers or key bullpen arms at this time.
- Petco Park is a hitters' friendly ballpark, but Padres' strong bullpen and home-field advantage are key. Weather and other external factors appear neutral.
- Padres remain motivated to secure a playoff spot with a positive recent run, while Rockies are largely out of contention with little incentive beyond development and pride.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Padres -316, Rockies +278 | San Diego Padres | β β β β β 78% |
Spread | Padres -1.5 -150, Rockies +1.5 +130 | San Diego Padres -1.5 | β β β β β 72% |
Over/under | Over 8.5 -105, Under 8.5 -115 | Under 8.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | San Diego Padres -3% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8.5 8% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
San Diego Padres to win on the moneyline, covering the -1.5 run spread, and the total scoring to stay under 8.5 runs.
Predicted Score: San Diego Padres 5 – Colorado Rockies 3