Match Analysis: San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-09
- Time: 1:41 AM UTC
- Location: Petco Park, San Diego, California
Game Overview
The San Diego Padres (78-65) host the Cincinnati Reds (72-71) in a crucial late-season MLB matchup featuring starting pitchers Yu Darvish for the Padres and Nick Lodolo for the Reds. The Padres have a strong home record, while the Reds seek to maintain playoff hopes after a recent series win.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Padres hold a 43-25 home record with a 78-65 overall, but have been struggling recently at home. The Reds have a 32-37 road record and are slightly under .500 overall, coming off a morale-boosting series win.
- Nick Lodolo has performed well against the Padres historically, with a 1-1 record and a 2.60 ERA in career matchups. Padersβ Yu Darvish has struggled for consistency this season with a 5.75 ERA.
- No significant injury reports directly affecting key starters or core batting lineups for either team.
- Game played outdoors at Petco Park, a pitcher-friendly park that traditionally suppresses scoring, favoring under totals.
- The Reds are fighting to keep faint playoff hopes alive, potentially providing more motivation, while the Padres aim to secure their division standing despite recent home struggles.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Padres -144, Reds +122 | San Diego Padres | β β β ββ 68% |
Spread | Padres -1.5 +146, Reds +1.5 -176 | San Diego Padres -1.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
Over/under | Over 7.5 -118, Under 7.5 -104 | Under 7.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | San Diego Padres 2% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 7.5 18% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 7.5 at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
San Diego Padres to win moneyline, Padres -1.5 on the spread, and under 7.5 total runs.
Predicted Score: San Diego Padres 4 – Cincinnati Reds 2