Match Analysis: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-18
- Time: 10:40 PM UTC
- Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh
Game Overview
The Pittsburgh Pirates (52-73) host the Toronto Blue Jays (73-52) in the first game of a three-game series. The Blue Jays are significant favorites due to their superior record, offensive strength, and momentum, while the Pirates struggle both offensively and in recent form.
Key Factors to Consider
- Toronto Blue Jays boast a 73-52 record, leading the AL East, with strong recent form and top-tier offense. Pirates have a 52-73 record, last in their division, with poor offensive stats and having lost 7 of their last 8 games.
- The Blue Jays have outperformed the Pirates in scoring and wins this season, with the Pirates underperforming as favorites and the Blue Jays successful as underdogs in similar odds scenarios.
- No significant injuries reported that could impact starting pitchers or key offensive players for either team.
- Mostly sunny weather, mild temperature (81Β°F), and low wind at PNC Park favor standard gameplay without weather interruptions.
- Blue Jays are highly motivated, currently leading their division and looking to secure a playoff spot. Pirates have minimal motivation late in a disappointing season.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | -106 (Blue Jays), -104 (Pirates) | Toronto Blue Jays | β β β β β 75% |
Spread | -1.5 Pirates +192, +1.5 Blue Jays -230 | Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Over/under | Over 7 -115, Under 7 -105 | Under 7 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Toronto Blue Jays 9% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 7 21% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 7 at 21% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 22.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Toronto Blue Jays moneyline (win outright).
Predicted Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4, Pittsburgh Pirates 2