Match Analysis: Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-29
- Time: 5:36 PM UTC
- Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh
Game Overview
The Pittsburgh Pirates will host the New York Mets at PNC Park on June 29, 2025. Both teams are coming off recent matchups with the Mets having notable offensive contributors such as Juan Soto and Jose Siri, and the Pirates featuring strong performances from Matthew Gorski and Keiner Delgado. This game follows a series of recent contests between the two teams, indicating a competitive and closely matched series.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Mets have demonstrated strong hitting power with players like Juan Soto (4 HR, .385 AVG, 8 RBI) and Jose Siri (3 HR, 8 RBI), reflecting a potent offense. The Pirates counter with impressive bats in Matthew Gorski (.429 AVG, 4 HR, 13 RBI) and Keiner Delgado showing perfect offensive metrics in limited appearances. Pitching and recent form will be critical with the Mets slight favorite due to better overall statistics and recent momentum.
- The teams have recently faced off multiple times in June 2025, including games on June 27 and 28, showing a developing rivalry and tactical familiarity. The Mets have had the upper hand in recent encounters but the Pirates have remained competitive at home.
- No significant injury reports are noted for either team affecting key players in this matchup. Mookie Betts' illness affects Dodgers but does not impact this match. Both teams appear at near full strength.
- The game will be played at PNC Park with typical summer weather expected, which usually supports balanced play between pitching and hitting. There are no unusual external factors such as weather delays or travel fatigue reported.
- Both teams are motivated to gain an edge in the series with the Mets pushing to continue their recent winning momentum and the Pirates eager to defend home turf and close the gap in the matchup.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | New York Mets: -154, Pittsburgh Pirates: 130 | New York Mets to win | β β β β β 70% |
| Spread | New York Mets: -1.5 (105), Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-126) | New York Mets -1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 9.5: 100, Under 9.5: -122 | Under 9.5 runs | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | New York Mets -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 9.5 0% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 9.5 at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given recent form, offensive firepower, and odds, the New York Mets are favored to win with a moderate confidence level. The Pirates are expected to provide a strong challenge but are underdogs in this scenario.
Predicted Score: New York Mets 5 – Pittsburgh Pirates 3