Match Analysis: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-10
- Time: 5:36 PM UTC
- Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh
Game Overview
The Cincinnati Reds (61-57) are visiting the Pittsburgh Pirates (51-66) in an important late-season MLB game. Reds have a better record and pitching stats, while Pirates are playing at home with some recent moderate form improvements.
Key Factors to Consider
- Reds hold a 61-57 record with a 3.86 team ERA and strong on-base and slugging percentages (.317 OBP, .389 SLG). Pirates are 51-66 with less consistent recent form but showed solid pitching in their last shutout win.
- Recent meetings have been competitive; Reds won 2-1 in the prior game. Pitchers facing each other have no prior career matchups, adding uncertainty.
- No major injuries reported affecting starting pitchers. Both starting pitchersβZack Littell (Reds) and Mike Burrows (Pirates)βare expected to start, with Littell showing stronger season metrics (3.46 ERA vs. 4.45 ERA).
- Game played at PNC Park, home of the Pirates, with favorable weather (85Β°F, no rain). Reds have demonstrated some susceptibility to home runs this season, which may be exploitable by Pirates.
- Reds are fighting for playoff positioning and have strong motivation to secure wins. Pirates are lower in standings but playing with house advantage, motivated to upset.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Cincinnati Reds: -106, Pittsburgh Pirates: -110 | Cincinnati Reds | β β β ββ 68% |
Spread | Cincinnati Reds: -1.5 +164, Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 -200 | Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 8.5: -104, Under 8.5: -118 | Under 8.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Cincinnati Reds 13% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8.5 7% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Cincinnati Reds at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Cincinnati Reds to win; Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 to cover; Over/Under: Under 8.5 runs
Predicted Score: Cincinnati Reds 4 – 3 Pittsburgh Pirates