Match Analysis: Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-12
- Time: 10:45 PM UTC
- Location: Citizens Bank Park
Game Overview
The Philadelphia Phillies host the St. Louis Cardinals in a key mid-May MLB matchup. Both teams are looking to build momentum after recent performances, with the Phillies coming off a recent extra-inning win and the Cardinals seeking to bounce back from a tight road series.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Phillies have demonstrated late-game resilience, with key hitters like Alec Bohm and Trea Turner delivering in clutch situations. The Cardinals have had a mixed record on the road, but have shown the ability to score late in close games.
- Recent head-to-head matchups have been closely contested, with both teams capable of winning in either ballpark. Historical data suggests a slight edge to the Phillies at home, but not by a wide margin.
- No major injury concerns reported from recent coverage, but always check lineup changes before first pitch for last-minute updates.
- Weather at Citizens Bank Park appears favorable for baseball, with mild temperatures and no significant precipitation expected. The crowd is likely to be supportive of the Phillies, providing a home-field advantage.
- Both teams are in the thick of the early season playoff chase. The Phillies are motivated to defend their home turf and build on recent momentum, while the Cardinals are eager to steal a win on the road.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | PHI: -164, STL: +148 | Philadelphia Phillies | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | PHI -1.5 +125, STL +1.5 -145 | St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 63% |
Over/under | Over 8 -112, Under 8 -108 | Under 8 | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Philadelphia Phillies -0% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8 6% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 8 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The Phillies are slight favorites at home, given their recent form and home-field advantage. Expect a closely contested game, but with the Phillies having the upper hand by a narrow margin.
Predicted Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4, St. Louis Cardinals 3