Match Analysis: Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-11
- Time: 11:16 PM UTC
- Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Game Overview
The Philadelphia Phillies face the New York Mets at home, with Phillies favored in moneyline and spread betting. The Phillies have better recent form and a strong home advantage, especially with pitcher Jesus Luzardo starting against Mets' David Peterson.
Key Factors to Consider
- Phillies hold an 86-60 record, winning 4 of last 5 games; Mets are 76-70, with 0 wins in last 5. Phillies flag strong home performance while Mets look to rebound from recent heavy loss to Phillies.
- Luzardo has a 3-1 record with 2.12 ERA versus the Mets, while Peterson is 0-2 with a 5.84 ERA against Phillies in their recent matchups. Phillies have overall edge in recent H2H.
- No major injuries reported for either team that significantly impact lineup or starting pitching for this matchup.
- Game played outdoors at Citizens Bank Park, Philliesβ home ballpark known for hitter-friendly conditions, which could aid scoring. No adverse weather expected.
- Phillies aim to consolidate playoff positioning with a win at home; Mets seek redemption and improvement after recent slump and heavy loss against same opponent.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Philadelphia Phillies -136, New York Mets +116 | Philadelphia Phillies | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +140, New York Mets +1.5 -170 | Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 8.5 -108, Under 8.5 -112 | Over 8.5 runs | β β β ββ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Philadelphia Phillies 2% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 8.5 6% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 8.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Philadelphia Phillies to win on the moneyline
Predicted Score: Philadelphia Phillies 6 – New York Mets 3