Match Analysis: Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-01
- Time: 10:45 PM UTC
- Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Game Overview
The Philadelphia Phillies host the Detroit Tigers in a high-stakes MLB matchup featuring two playoff-aspiring teams. Phillies have a solid home record and strong pitching with Ranger Suarez starting, while Tigers arrive on a 4-game winning streak but have struggled on the road.
Key Factors to Consider
- Phillies hold a 61-47 record, going 33-19 at home, with mixed recent results (5-5 in last 10 games). The Tigers are slightly better overall at 64-46 but have a weaker 28-25 away record. Phillies have stronger pitching this game, with Ranger Suarez posting a 2.59 ERA and 9-4 ATS record in starts, compared to Tigers starter Jack Flaherty's 4.51 ERA and 7-13 ATS.
- In recent H2H, Phillies won 4-2 on July 13. Phillies lead overall series 10-6 with a stronger home advantage (5 home wins). Philly averages 3.67 runs per game vs Detroitβs 3.06.
- No significant injuries reported affecting starting pitchers or key hitters for either team in this matchup.
- The game at Citizens Bank Park favors hitters slightly with a fast field, potentially helping both offenses. Weather conditions are normal and not expected to impact play.
- Both teams are pushing for playoff positioning, but Phillies have added urgency playing at home and with a more reliable starter. Tigers seek to continue momentum from recent wins but face challenge on the road.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Phillies -150, Tigers +136 | Philadelphia Phillies | β β β β β 75% |
Spread | Phillies -1.5 (+140), Tigers +1.5 (-160) | Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Over 8 (-105), Under 8 (-115) | Under 8 runs | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Philadelphia Phillies 3% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8 12% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Philadelphia Phillies to win moneyline; Phillies to cover -1.5 spread; Total runs under 8
Predicted Score: Phillies 4 – Tigers 2