Match Analysis: New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-09
- Time: 11:06 PM UTC
- Location: Yankee Stadium, The Bronx, New York
Game Overview
The New York Yankees host the Detroit Tigers in a pivotal late-season MLB matchup between two playoff-contending teams with similar overall records. The Yankees enter as favorites backed by strong recent form and home advantage, while Detroit struggles slightly but remains dangerous.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Yankees have an 80-63 record with 7 wins in their last 10 games, averaging 5.24 runs scored per game and 4.26 allowed. The Tigers hold an 82-62 record but have been inconsistent recently and rely heavily on starting pitcher Casey Mize, who has struggled in prior matchups.
- Historically, the Yankees lead the series 69-66 overall and 36-27 at home versus Detroit. The last meeting saw a close 4-3 Yankees win, highlighting a competitive rivalry with slightly better offensive output from the Yankees.
- No major injuries reported for the Yankees impacting lineup or starting pitcher. Tigersβ key players are healthy but the pitching staff, specifically Casey Mize, shows signs of vulnerability that could be exploited by a strong Yankees lineup.
- Game played at Yankee Stadium favors the home team with supportive crowd and a hitter-friendly park. Weather and travel factors are neutral. Starting pitchers are Will Warren (Yankees) with 8-6 record and 4.28 ERA, and Casey Mize (Tigers) with 13-5 record and 3.87 ERA.
- Both teams are motivated to secure playoff positioning late in the season, but the Yankees' recent form and home advantage give them a slight psychological edge going into a critical series opener.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | New York Yankees -156, Detroit Tigers +132 | New York Yankees | β β β β β 75% |
Spread | New York Yankees -1.5 +126, Detroit Tigers +1.5 -152 | New York Yankees -1.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Over 8.5 -110, Under 8.5 -110 | Over 8.5 runs | β β β ββ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | New York Yankees 0% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 8.5 18% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 8.5 at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
New York Yankees to win outright on the moneyline, cover the -1.5 run spread, with the game going over 8.5 total runs.
Predicted Score: Yankees 6, Tigers 4
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