Match Analysis: New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-05
- Time: 11:06 PM UTC
- Location: Yankee Stadium
Game Overview
The New York Yankees (37-23, first in AL East) host the Cleveland Guardians (33-27, third in AL Central) for the rubber match of their series. The Yankees are heavy favorites, but the Guardians have shown resilience and the ability to keep games close against top teams. Recent betting analysis and past performance suggest a close, low-scoring game, despite the Yankees’ strong home advantage and favored status[1][5].
Key Factors to Consider
- Yankees have a strong home record and are favored in most matchups this season, winning 66.7% as favorites. The Guardians are solid underdogs, winning 17 of 35 such games this season. Recent form: Yankees 6-4 in last 10, Guardians 5-5 in last 10, but Guardians beat Yankees in previous series meeting.
- Head-to-head has seen a split in recent matchups. Guardians have managed wins against the Yankees, including a recent walk-off win. Yankees typically dominate at home, but Guardians have shown they can compete.
- No major injuries reported for either team's key players in the lead-up to this game, based on available public updates.
- Game is played at Yankee Stadium, favoring home team. Weather is not expected to be a significant factor. Over/under is set at 8.5, indicating oddsmakers expect a moderate to low-scoring game.
- Both teams are highly motivated—Yankees to maintain their lead in the AL East, Guardians to climb in the AL Central standings and prove they can beat top teams on the road.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Guardians: +220, Yankees: -270 | Yankees | High (75%) |
Spread | Guardians: +1.5 (112), Yankees: -1.5 (-134) | Yankees -1.5 (cover) | Moderate (60%) |
Over/under | Over 8.5 (-115), Under 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 | Moderate (55%) |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | New York Yankees 2% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8.5 5% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Yankees are heavy favorites at home and have a strong win probability (implied probability: ~73% for Yankees at -270 moneyline; ~31% Guardians at +220). However, Guardians have shown ability to keep games close and have beaten Yankees before. Most recent published predictions suggest Yankees win by 1-2 runs, and a lower-scoring game (Total < 9 runs)[5].
Predicted Score: Yankees 4, Guardians 2
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