Match Analysis: New York Mets vs Miami Marlins - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-28
- Time: 11:11 PM UTC
- Location: Citi Field, Queens, New York
Game Overview
The New York Mets (72-61) host the Miami Marlins (62-71) at Citi Field with Mets favored based on recent form, stronger pitching, and home advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Mets have won 4 of their last 5 games and are 5-1 SU and ATS in recent outings, while Miami is struggling with a 5-13 SU record in their last 18 games but a respectable 4-2 ATS away from home.
- Recent H2H data favors the Mets; they have generally dominated matchups against Marlins and perform better at home.
- No significant injuries reported that impact starting pitchers or key lineup players for either side.
- Game played outdoors at Citi Field where Mets pitching has shown solid performance, and weather conditions expected to be neutral for baseball.
- Mets remain motivated to maintain playoff positioning and avoid dropping winnable games, whereas Marlins are out of playoff contention, likely less pressured.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | New York Mets: -245, Miami Marlins: +200 | New York Mets | β β β β β 78% |
Spread | New York Mets -1.5: -126, Miami Marlins +1.5: +105 | New York Mets -1.5 | β β β β β 72% |
Over/under | Over 8.5: -122, Under 8.5: +100 | Over 8.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | New York Mets -0% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 8.5 13% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 8.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Back the New York Mets on the moneyline and run line; take the Over 8.5 total runs considering strong Mets offense and pitching matchup.
Predicted Score: New York Mets 6 - Miami Marlins 3
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