Match Analysis: New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-06
- Time: 5:11 PM UTC
- Location: Citi Field, Queens, New York
Game Overview
The New York Mets host the Cleveland Guardians in an interleague MLB matchup with both teams having modestly positive recent form and pitching matchups favoring the Mets' David Peterson against the Guardians' Gavin Williams.
Key Factors to Consider
- Mets hold a 63-51 record with a solid home advantage but have shown some inconsistency; Guardians sit at 58-55 and have recently gained momentum with improved offense and pitching.
- Guardians have covered the spread in 3 of the last encounters vs Mets; limited direct pitching matchups as Williams faces Mets for the first time.
- No significant injury concerns reported for either team impacting starting pitchers or core lineup.
- Game played at Mets’ Citi Field, historically favoring pitchers; weather forecast stable with no adverse conditions projected.
- Mets push to secure playoff positioning at home; Guardians motivated to extend winning streak and improve standing.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Mets -168, Guardians +142 | Mets | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Spread | Mets -1.5 +125, Guardians +1.5 -150 | Guardians +1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over 7.5 -122, Under 7.5 +100 | Over 7.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | New York Mets -4% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 7.5 4% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 7.5 at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 4.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
New York Mets moneyline win, Guardians +1.5 spread, Over 7.5 total runs
Predicted Score: Mets 5 – Guardians 4