Match Analysis: New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-18
- Time: 11:11 PM UTC
- Location: Citi Field
Game Overview
The New York Mets host the Cincinnati Reds in a potentially evenly matched game despite the Mets being favorites. Both teams are mid-table and seeking to improve their standings.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Mets have a strong offense, averaging nearly 5 runs per game recently, but their defense occasionally falters. The Reds have been consistent under left-hander Nick Lodolo.
- Historically, the Mets lead with 43 wins, but the Reds recently won 3-1 last September.
- Sean Manaea is recovering and makes only his second appearance of the season for the Mets.
- Citi Field provides a home-field advantage for the Mets.
- Both teams are highly motivated to secure wins and improve their standings.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Cincinnati Reds +136, New York Mets -162 | Cincinnati Reds | ★★★☆☆ 54% |
Spread | Cincinnati Reds +1.5 -156, New York Mets -1.5 130 | Cincinnati Reds +1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 59% |
Over/under | Over 8 -115, Under 8 -105 | Under 8 | ★★★☆☆ 56% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | New York Mets 37% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8 5% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: New York Mets at 37% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 27.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the factors, the Mets are favored but recent trends suggest the Reds could be a good value bet.
Predicted Score: Mets 4, Reds 3