Match Analysis: Nevada Wolf Pack vs San Diego St Aztecs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-22
- Time: 8:05 PM UTC
- Location: Don Weir Field at Peccole Park, Reno, Nevada
Game Overview
This NCAA Baseball match between the Nevada Wolf Pack and the San Diego State Aztecs is a key Mountain West conference game. Nevada, playing at home, has a schedule of 54 games for the 2025 season including 28 home games at Don Weir Field at Peccole Park. San Diego State visits Reno for this game as part of their Mountain West conference schedule. Both teams are motivated to improve their standings late in the season with conference implications at stake.
Key Factors to Consider
- Nevada finished the previous season with a 25-26 overall record and a 16-14 conference record, tying for third in the Mountain West. They are led by head coach Jake McKinley in his third season. San Diego State has also been competitive within the conference. Nevada’s home advantage at Don Weir Field could play a role given their familiarity and fan support.
- Recent head-to-head data is limited in the search results, but these Mountain West rivals typically have closely contested series. Home field advantage favors Nevada for this matchup.
- No specific injury reports are available from the search results for either team. No major absences are noted that could significantly impact the lineups.
- Weather conditions and other external elements likely favor the home team, Nevada, playing in Reno. The current date and time of the game suggest a late afternoon/early evening start in local time, which is typical and should not impact play adversely.
- Both teams are competing in the Mountain West conference and are motivated to secure wins to improve postseason positioning. Nevada may have additional motivation playing at home in front of their fans.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Nevada Wolf Pack: -315, San Diego State Aztecs: 230 | Nevada Wolf Pack to win | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Spread | Nevada Wolf Pack: -3.5 (110), San Diego State Aztecs: +3.5 (-140) | Nevada to cover the -3.5 run spread | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Over/under | Over 13.5: -115, Under 13.5: -115 | Over 13.5 runs | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Nevada Wolf Pack -1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 13.5 12% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 13.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Nevada Wolf Pack is favored to win due to home advantage and slightly better team form. The Wolf Pack’s pitching and timely hitting are expected to control the game tempo. San Diego State will compete strongly but is the underdog.
Predicted Score: Nevada Wolf Pack 8 – San Diego State Aztecs 4