Match Analysis: Minnesota Twins vs San Diego Padres – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-31
- Time: 5:06 PM UTC
- Location: Target Field, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Game Overview
The Minnesota Twins (61-74) host the San Diego Padres (76-60) in a late season MLB matchup. Twins' Joe Ryan (12-7, 3.22 ERA) faces Padres' David Morgan (1-2, 2.95 ERA). Twins are favored on the moneyline and spread, with an over/under set at 8.5 runs.
Key Factors to Consider
- Twins have struggled with pitching depth recently but maintain slightly better form than Padres, who have lost four straight games and exhibit weaker offensive consistency. Twins' offense is featuring hot hitter Byron Buxton this season.
- Twins have success against NL West teams during day games, winning eight of their last nine following a loss. Padres have underperformed in recent matchups.
- No key injury reports that significantly affect starting lineups; Twins rely on a solid rotation starter Joe Ryan, whereas Padres starter Morgan has limited impact historically with a small sample.
- Home advantage for Twins at Target Field, familiar conditions and crowd support, and expected weather conditions neutral.
- Twins, out of playoff contention, play to improve record and support young talent; Padres motivated to stay ahead in division race but under pressure following recent losses.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Minnesota Twins -136, San Diego Padres +116 | Minnesota Twins | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Minnesota Twins -1.5 +155, San Diego Padres +1.5 -188 | San Diego Padres +1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 8.5 -100, Under 8.5 -122 | Under 8.5 runs | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Minnesota Twins 2% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8.5 6% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Minnesota Twins moneyline win
Predicted Score: Twins 4 – Padres 2