Match Analysis: Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-11
- Time: 12:11 AM UTC
- Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Game Overview
The Milwaukee Brewers (53-40) host the Washington Nationals (38-55) on Friday, July 11, 2025. The Brewers are in strong form, having won five of their last six games and sweeping the Dodgers in their most recent series. The Nationals are struggling for consistency, several games below .500. Milwaukee is heavily favored by bookmakers, with the total set at 8.5 runs.
Key Factors to Consider
- Milwaukee is 53-40, second in the NL Central, with a 3.68 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. The offense is solid, scoring 435 runs with a .247 batting average and .322 OBP. Christian Yelich (18 HR, 63 RBI) and Jackson Chourio (15 HR, 56 RBI) lead the team. The Nationals are 38-55, with less effective pitching and offense.
- Recent H2H trends are limited in data, but the Brewers are clearly the superior team this season. Milwaukee has a 63% win rate as favorites, while the Nationals are 33-37 as underdogs.
- No major injuries reported for either team's key contributors at this time.
- Game is at home for the Brewers, where they have a strong record. No adverse weather expected.
- Milwaukee is pushing for a playoff spot and riding momentum. Washington's motivation is lower with a losing record and less playoff relevance.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Milwaukee -184, Washington +154 | Milwaukee Brewers win | ★★★★☆ 74% |
Spread | Milwaukee -1.5 +114, Washington +1.5 -137 | Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 67% |
Over/under | Over 8.5 -115, Under 8.5 -105 | Over 8.5 | ★★★☆☆ 61% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Milwaukee Brewers 0% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 8.5 7% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 8.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Milwaukee Brewers are expected to win, covering the spread and the game going over the total.
Predicted Score: Milwaukee Brewers 5, Washington Nationals 3