Match Analysis: Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-13
- Time: 6:11 PM UTC
- Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee
Game Overview
The Milwaukee Brewers host the struggling Washington Nationals with the Brewers significantly favored at home. Milwaukee has shown strong home form and success when heavily favored, while the Nationals have struggled recently and on the road versus Milwaukee.
Key Factors to Consider
- Milwaukee Brewers hold a 55-40 season record with a strong 65.2% win rate as favorites and 3-1 when favored by -220 or more. Washington Nationals are 38-57 on the year and have lost six of their last seven games.
- Washington is 0-3 all-time against Brewers starter Jake Irvin, who has a 7.32 ERA in those starts. Nationals have lost 14 of last 20 road games versus Brewers.
- No significant injury reports indicated for either team affecting starting pitchers or key hitters.
- Game played at Brewers' home ballpark, American Family Field, favoring the home team environment. No weather or travel issues reported.
- Brewers motivated to consolidate playoff positioning with home advantage, Nationals struggling with morale after recent heavy losses and poor road results.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Milwaukee -245, Washington +200 | Milwaukee Brewers | β β β β β 78% |
Spread | Milwaukee -1.5 (-111), Washington +1.5 (-108) | Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 | β β β β β 72% |
Over/under | Over 8.5 (-105), Under 8.5 (-115) | Over 8.5 runs | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Milwaukee Brewers -1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 8.5 17% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 8.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Milwaukee Brewers to win outright on the moneyline, cover the -1.5 run spread, and the total runs to go over 8.5.
Predicted Score: Milwaukee Brewers 6 – Washington Nationals 4