Match Analysis: Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-14
- Time: 6:10 PM UTC
- Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
Game Overview
The final game of a 3-game MLB series between the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals. The Brewers have the home-field advantage. The Brewers hold a strong 91-58 overall record with 48-26 at home, while the Cardinals struggle with a 72-77 overall record and 31-43 away. Recent games in the series have been close, with Brewers winning 3-2 in the latest match-up.
Key Factors to Consider
- Milwaukee Brewers have a superior season record and strong home performance compared to the Cardinals who have a losing record and a 5-game losing streak. Brewers' pitching has been solid with promising starter Misiorowski (5-2, 4.09 ERA). Cardinals' starter Mikolas (7-10, 4.84 ERA) shows less effectiveness. Brewers are currently on a 2-game winning streak, Cardinals on a 5-game losing streak.
- Recent head-to-head results in this series favor the Brewers narrowly with two wins (3-2 twice) compared to one win for the Cardinals (8-5). The series has been tightly contested, but Brewers show a slight edge in close games.
- No significant injury reports are available for either team that would impact starting lineups or pitching staff substantially for this game.
- The game is played at American Family Field with mild weather conditions (~73Β°F at 7 PM local). No external disruptions or major weather concerns are reported.
- Milwaukee is competing for playoff positioning and benefits from home advantage with a strong momentum. St. Louis is less motivated given their record and losing streak, but may strive to end the series with a win.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Milwaukee Brewers: -178, St. Louis Cardinals: 161 | Milwaukee Brewers | β β β ββ 64% |
| Spread | Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 114, St. Louis Cardinals: 1.5 -134 | Milwaukee Brewers to cover -1.5 | β β β ββ 58% |
| Over/under | Over: 8.5 -115, Under: 8.5 -105 | Under 8.5 runs | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Milwaukee Brewers -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 8.5 7% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Milwaukee Brewers are favored to win given their stronger performance, home advantage, and more effective starting pitching. Expected to win by a narrow margin in a moderately low-scoring game.
Predicted Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4 – St. Louis Cardinals 2