Match Analysis: Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-13
- Time: 6:10 PM UTC
- Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
Game Overview
The Milwaukee Brewers host the Pittsburgh Pirates in an MLB matchup where the Brewers are heavily favored due to recent dominant form and strong pitching matchups.
Key Factors to Consider
- Milwaukee Brewers have won 11 straight games and are 41-20 at home this season, showing strong overall form. Pirates have struggled on the road with a 17-41 record and have scored poorly in recent games, including three or fewer runs in six of their last eight.
- The Brewers dominated the Pirates in the previous game of this series, and Milwaukee has consistently led after early innings against National League teams with losing records. Pirates have lost nine consecutive Wednesday games at the Brewers' home stadium.
- Brewers' Brandon Woodruff has been impressive despite previous injuries, posting a 2.29 ERA with five straight outings allowing two or fewer runs. Pirates' Mitch Keller has a 3.86 ERA but has struggled against the Brewers historically, with a 1-5 record and 4.99 ERA in his career versus them.
- The game is a day game following the prior meeting the day before, favoring the Brewers who have a history of high-scoring day games in this context. Stadium and weather conditions at American Family Field are not expected to negatively impact the Brewers' performance.
- Milwaukee aims to extend their winning streak to 12 games and complete a series sweep, while Pittsburgh struggles for consistency and offense, dampening their motivation and likelihood to cover the spread.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Milwaukee -215, Pittsburgh +193 | Milwaukee Brewers | β β β β β 78% |
Spread | Milwaukee -1.5 (-116), Pittsburgh +1.5 (-104) | Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 | β β β β β 75% |
Over/under | Over 7.5 (-110), Under 7.5 (-110) | Over 7.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Milwaukee Brewers -2% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 7.5 11% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 7.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Milwaukee Brewers to win outright and cover the -1.5 run line, with the total going over 7.5 runs.
Predicted Score: Milwaukee Brewers 6 – 2 Pittsburgh Pirates