Match Analysis: Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-10
- Time: 6:11 PM UTC
- Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Game Overview
The Milwaukee Brewers host the New York Mets in the final game of their three-game series. Brewers are slight favorites at home and aim to complete a series sweep. Starting pitchers are Quinn Priester (Brewers, 11-2, 3.15 ERA) and Sean Manaea (Mets, 1-1, 3.52 ERA).
Key Factors to Consider
- The Brewers have 72-44 record and are in strong form, winning the first two games of the series. The Mets are 63-54 overall, struggling to gain momentum recently after a 7-4 loss in the previous matchup. Brewers have performed well as favorites this season with a 67.8% win rate.
- Recent H2H favors the Brewers who won the previous game 7-4. Priester has limited exposure to Mets but is pitching strongly this season. Manaea has a less impressive career ERA (5.82) against the Brewers.
- No significant injuries reported impacting either starting pitcher or key position players for this matchup.
- Home field advantage for Brewers at American Family Field, known for moderate run-scoring environment. Weather and travel conditions favorable with no expected disruptions.
- Brewers strongly motivated to complete a sweep and bolster their MLB-leading record. Mets motivated to avoid the sweep, but recent form and pitching matchup favor Brewers' momentum.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Milwaukee Brewers: -112, New York Mets: -104 | Milwaukee Brewers | β β β ββ 65% |
Spread | Milwaukee Brewers +1.5: -192, New York Mets -1.5: 158 | Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 | β β β ββ 61% |
Over/under | Over 8: -115, Under 8: -105 | Under 8 runs | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Milwaukee Brewers 10% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8 7% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Milwaukee Brewers at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Milwaukee Brewers to win moneyline, to cover +1.5 spread, and the total to go under 8 runs.
Predicted Score: Brewers 4 – Mets 3