Match Analysis: Milwaukee Brewers vs Boston Red Sox – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-28
- Time: 5:11 PM UTC
- Location: American Family Field
Game Overview
Boston Red Sox (27-30, 4th AL East) face Milwaukee Brewers (28-28 or 27-29 depending on recent game results, 4th NL Central) in the third game of their series. The Brewers have already won the first two games, outscoring the Red Sox 8-3, including a 5-1 walk-off win in Game 2. Boston aims to stop their road slide; starters are Brayan Bello (BOS) with a 4.08 ERA and Freddy Peralta (MIL) with a dominant 2.55 ERA.
Key Factors to Consider
- Brewers have outscored the Red Sox in the series and have a stronger recent performance. Milwaukee starter Freddy Peralta boasts a superior ERA, WHIP, and strikeout numbers compared to Boston's Brayan Bello. Boston relies on strong individual contributors like Trayce Thompson, but the team has struggled offensively lately.
- Milwaukee has already won the first two games of this series, demonstrating current superiority in both pitching and timely hitting.
- No significant new injuries reported for either side. A note on Mookie Betts in another context, but he is not involved in this game.
- Game is at Milwaukee, representing a slight home advantage. Weather and travel are not notable concerns.
- Red Sox are highly motivated to avoid a sweep and end their road struggles. Brewers are motivated to extend their series win streak and strengthen their NL Central standing.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | BOS: 126, MIL: -148 | Milwaukee Brewers | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | BOS: +1.5 (-164), MIL: -1.5 (136) | Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 | β β β ββ 55% |
| Over/under | Over: 7.5 (-122), Under: 7.5 (100) | Under 7.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Milwaukee Brewers 4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 7.5 20% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 7.5 at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Brewers are favored due to pitching advantage and recent momentum. Likely outcome is a low-scoring, close game with Milwaukee edging out Boston.
Predicted Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4, Boston Red Sox 2