Match Analysis: Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-20
- Time: 10:41 PM UTC
- Location: loanDepot Park, Miami, FL
Game Overview
The Miami Marlins host the St. Louis Cardinals for the final game of their series, following the Cardinals' 7-4 win the previous day. This matchup features starting pitchers Andre Pallante for the Cardinals and Jakob Marsee for the Marlins, with the Cardinals currently holding a slight edge in recent form and series momentum.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Cardinals have demonstrated solid offensive output recently, including a 7-4 victory over the Marlins on August 19. Andre Pallante (6-10, 5.04 ERA) remains their starting pitcher for this contest, showing mixed season performance. The Marlins have struggled to contain the Cardinals' bats but have home field advantage and potential to leverage their pitching staff effectively.
- The recent game on August 19 saw the Cardinals defeat the Marlins 7-4, suggesting a competitive but edge-holding Cardinals team. Historically, the Cardinals have been slightly stronger in the season matchups, although the games are competitive at home for Miami.
- No significant injury reports were available from the latest data, indicating that both teams likely field near full-strength rosters for this game.
- The game is played at loanDepot Park, Miami, where weather conditions and crowd support typically favor the home Marlins. The timing late in the season may influence player fatigue but is equally shared between both teams.
- Both teams are motivated to secure wins in August's closing weeks to improve playoff positioning. The Cardinals aim to capitalize on their recent win momentum, while the Marlins seek to avoid a series loss at home.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Miami Marlins: -118, St. Louis Cardinals: 100 | St. Louis Cardinals | β β β ββ 65% |
| Spread | Miami Marlins: 1.5 -205, St. Louis Cardinals: -1.5 172 | St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 8.5 -104, Under: 8.5 -118 | Over 8.5 runs | β β β ββ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | St. Louis Cardinals 4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 8.5 6% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 8.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
St. Louis Cardinals are favored to win given their recent victory in the series, stronger offensive statistics, and pitching match-up advantage with Andre Pallante starting. The game is expected to be competitive but tilt toward the Cardinals.
Predicted Score: St. Louis Cardinals 6 – Miami Marlins 4