Match Analysis: Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-09
- Time: 10:09 PM UTC
- Location: Los Angeles Dodgers Home Stadium
Game Overview
This is Game 4 of the National League Divisional Series (NLDS) between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Philadelphia Phillies. The Dodgers lead the series 2-1. The Dodgers have a strong home record (52-29), while the Phillies have a less consistent road record (41-40). Both teams have competitive regular season records and are motivated to advance to the next playoff round.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Dodgers finished the regular season 93-69, showing excellent home performance. The Phillies finished slightly better at 96-66 but have been less dominant away. Dodgers' pitching and offense have been solid in the playoffs, with home advantage contributing positively.
- In the current series, Dodgers hold a 2-1 lead. The teams have traded wins, indicating a competitive matchup with slight edge to Dodgers due to momentum and home field.
- No major injuries are reported for either team that could significantly affect today's game. Both teams are expected to field their best rosters.
- Playing at Dodgers' home gives them advantage due to familiarity with stadium and fan support. Weather and other external conditions are typical with no adverse impact forecasted.
- Dodgers are motivated to close out the series at home and avoid a Game 5. Phillies are under pressure to extend the series by winning this pivotal away game.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Los Angeles Dodgers: -124, Philadelphia Phillies: 106 | Los Angeles Dodgers | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | Los Angeles Dodgers: -1.5 at 152, Philadelphia Phillies: +1.5 at -184 | Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 7.5: -115, Under 7.5: -105 | Under 7.5 runs | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Los Angeles Dodgers 12% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 7.5 3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Los Angeles Dodgers are favored to win this game given their home advantage, momentum in the series, and stronger recent performance.
Predicted Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4, Philadelphia Phillies 2