Match Analysis: Houston Astros vs New York Yankees - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-04
- Time: 12:11 AM UTC
- Location: Daikin Park, Houston
Game Overview
The Houston Astros host the New York Yankees in a pivotal late-season MLB matchup. Both teams have similar records around 76-77 wins, making this game crucial for playoff positioning.
Key Factors to Consider
- Yankees have a slight edge with a better overall record (77-61) versus Astros (76-63). Yankees boast a strong offense (.250 AVG, .331 OBP, .457 SLG) and a slightly better pitching ERA (3.90 vs. 3.84 ERA for Astros). The Astros have a balanced offense with key players like Jose Altuve, but their pitching is marginally less effective in recent home starts.
- Yankees won the previous game decisively (7-1), indicating recent dominance. Houston has a modest 57.1% winning rate as a moneyline underdog this season, but the Yankees show a 59.1% win rate when favorites at around -126 odds.
- No major injuries reported for either side significantly affecting starting pitching or key batsmen. Both starters are healthy with Will Warren (Yankees) making his first career start against Astros, and Jason Alexander (Astros) with a 4-1 record and 4.61 ERA this season.
- Game played at the Astrosβ home park (Daikin Park). Astros have slight home advantage but Yankees are experienced road team. No weather or travel complications reported.
- Both teams are motivated for crucial playoff positioning late in the season. Yankees likely slightly more motivated off a big recent win and upcoming challenging series against Blue Jays.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Yankees -126, Astros +108 | Yankees | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Yankees -1.5 +116, Astros +1.5 -140 | Yankees -1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 9 -106, Under 9 -114 | Over 9 runs | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | New York Yankees -1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 9 17% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 9 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
New York Yankees to win on the moneyline
Predicted Score: Yankees 6 - Astros 3
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