Match Analysis: Houston Astros vs Colorado Rockies – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-28
- Time: 6:11 PM UTC
- Location: Daikin Park, Houston, Texas
Game Overview
The Houston Astros (73-60) host the Colorado Rockies (38-95) in the final game of their series. The Astros currently lead the AL West and have won 4 of their last 6 games. Colorado is struggling with a very poor season record and weak away performance. Starting pitchers favor Houston with Jason Alexander (4-1, 4.59 ERA) matched against struggling Rockies pitching.
Key Factors to Consider
- Astros have a solid pitching staff with a 3.87 ERA and strong offense led by Jose Altuve and Christian Walker. Rockies have been one of the worst teams in MLB this year with a 38-95 record and poor road results, winning less than 20% as moneyline underdogs.
- The Astros and Rockies split the first two games of this series 1-6 and 4-0, with Houston earning a shutout win in the last game. Historical matchups heavily favor Houston due to superior talent and pitching depth.
- No major injuries reported that significantly impact starting lineups for either team.
- Home field advantage for Houston at Daikin Park, familiar with mound and climate; Rockies continue to struggle on the road and in hitter-friendly ballparks.
- Houston is jockeying for playoff position as AL West leaders, adding motivation to maintain winning momentum. Rockies are out of contention and are likely less motivated.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Colorado Rockies: +198, Houston Astros: -240 | Houston Astros | β β β β β 78% |
Spread | Colorado Rockies +1.5: -104, Houston Astros -1.5: -115 | Houston Astros -1.5 | β β β β β 72% |
Over/under | Over 9: -102, Under 9: -120 | Under 9 runs | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Houston Astros -8% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 9 6% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 9 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Houston Astros to win outright (Moneyline), cover the -1.5 run spread, and the game to go under 9 total runs
Predicted Score: Houston Astros 4 – Colorado Rockies 1